This market will resolve to “YES” if a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) occurs between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “NO.”

The resolution will be based on Statistics Canada’s table 36-10-0104-01 (Gross domestic product, expenditure-based), specifically using the quarter-over-quarter percentage change in real GDP, seasonally adjusted at annual rates.

If Q3 2025 is positive and makes two consecutive negative quarters impossible, the market resolves to “NO” immediately.

All initial and revised QGDP estimates will be considered prior to market resolution.

Resolution source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610010401