• Reform UK minority + Conservative support

  15%
• Reform UK majority

  13%
• Reform UK minority

  11%
• Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition

  11%
• Labour majority

  10%
• Labour minority + Green support

  9%
• Labour minority

  8%
• Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition

  8%
• Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support

  7%
• Labour minority + SNP support

  7%

If Reform UK with the support of the Conservative Party exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.