KalshiPoliticsCloses Jan 1, 2030Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?
Yes
17%0 pts today
Chance of Yes, the market price on Kalshi.
- Volume
- $400
- 24h volume
- $200
- Open interest
- $200
Price of Yes over time
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How it resolves
rules from KalshiIf Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Analysis
One plain read on where this price sits, from the rules, the book and the news.
Order book
41,245 contracts resting, best Yes bid 17¢, best No bid 82¢
Yes bids7 levels
PriceContracts
- 17¢1,958
- 16¢6
- 7¢285
- 5¢200
- 3¢200
- 2¢2,018
- 1¢2,105
No bids10 levels
PriceContracts
- 82¢4,098
- 50¢579
- 49¢200
- 34¢1,993
- 33¢2,768
- 15¢200
- 14¢3,480
- 3¢6,550
