Updated Nov 27

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q3 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 30, 2025, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.